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Growth picks up, public debt increases

The economy is on the rise again, with projected growth of 0.6% in 2024 and 1.6% in 2025. An increase in median purchasing power means that the loss of purchasing power inflicted by the inflation shock has been reversed. The budget deficit in the coming years will be significantly higher than last year.

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Economic dynamics and migration

Migration is largely driven by labour demand. This implies that, beyond direct migration policies, economic policies can also play a significant role in shaping migration to and from the Netherlands. This is the conclusion of the report “Economic Dynamics and Migration” that the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis published on 9 April, of which an English version is now available.

MEV 2025 - Promo UK

Projections September 2024 (MEV 2025)

De koopkrachtstijging in 2025 is na de augustusbesluitvorming van het kabinet minder sterk dan eerder werd geraamd. Wel is het begrotingstekort iets gunstiger. Dat blijkt uit de Macro Economische Verkenning 2025 (MEV 2025) die vandaag is gepresenteerd.

World Trade Monitor June 2024

World Trade Monitor June 2024

World Merchandise trade increased with 0.7% in June 2024 compared to the previous month, following an decrease of 0.3% in May. This is evident from the monthly CPB World Trade Monitor.

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The added value of machine learning for macroeconomic forecasting in the Netherlands

In this paper, we explore how machine learning can enhance macroeconomic forecasting for the Dutch economy.

Students

Promoting diversity among student populations is possible without lottery selection

It is possible to promote diversity among student populations without the use of lottery selection.

Forge

European Carbon Import Tax Effective Against Leakage

Starting in 2026, the EU is gradually introducing a carbon import tax at the EU border (CBAM), to counter carbon emissions relocation to outside the EU. CBAM reduces this carbon leakage by about one-third.

Projections and figures

World Trade Monitor June 2024World Trade Monitor May 2024August projections 2024 (cMEV 2025)World Trade Monitor April 2024World Trade Monitor March 2024World Trade Monitor February 2024World Trade Monitor December 2023World Trade Monitor January 2024

Calendar

Sep 25Release date next World Trade MonitorOct 31Hybrid seminar: Persistent Effects of Social Program Participation on the Third GenerationNov 27CPB Open DaySep 26Hybrid seminar: Consumption during unemployment: a Synthetic Event Study Approach using Bank Transaction DataOct 17CPB lecture 2024: Health Insurance, Out-of-Pocket Payments, Health Expenditures, and Health Outcomes: Policy Lessons from ExperimentsOct 15Hybrid seminar: Politically Motivated Trade Protection (joint with Chad P. Bown, Paola Conconi, and Lorenzo Trimarchi)Oct 14Hybrid seminar: Downward Price Rigidities and Inflationary Relative Demand Shocks

Current

Growth picks up and purchasing power recovers, public finances deteriorate Promoting diversity among student populations is possible without lottery selectionGeopolitical trade restrictions significantly impact the Dutch economy, with notable differences across industriesCPB projections: purchasing power restored, public finances need a course correctionTozo supports Self-Employed PersonsCausal forests with fixed effects for treatment effect heterogeneity in difference-in-differencesCPB presents 11th edition election manifestos analysis Does replacing grants by income-contingent loans harm enrolment?